There is a debate on
the social media currently raging among Zimbabweans regarding the
shocking policy announcement by our Cambridge educated
Professor Mthuli Ncube our Minister of Finance announcing the return
of the Zimbabwean dollar. I have my own views about this and I am
remembering the words that my former MD Mr Carlson Chiswo used to
constantly tell me during our weekly Client Management meetings at
Zimant Lion Insurance company in Harare between 2004 and 2005. Mr
Chiswo would tell me, “Mr Kanyoka, you can’t continue doing the
same thing and expect to get different results!”. We might have one
of the most educated finance ministers who among other things once
owned his own asset management company, once taught at Wits Business
school, also taught at University of Oxford and previously was the
Vice President and Chief Economist at Africa Development Bank. What
the government has done fits with the definition of insanity, it will
simply not work.
If you are in
Zimbabwe and you only rely on your salary, I sympathise with you. We
are going back to Mugabe Economics of the period 1997 after the fall
of the Zimbabwe dollars up to 2009 when the government was forced to
ditch the Zimbabwean dollar. For you to survive in Zimbabwe you need
to be doing an income generating venture even something as basic as
keeping chicken and selling. The salary will always lag inflation as
what is happening now where a civil servant is earning less than
US$30 per month. Despite the fact that the government has banned US$
and South African Rand, the prices of almost everything will be
pegged to forex. If you have something to sell, you will always be
able to increase your price and as time goes on, your venture will be
more than your salary.
Those professionals
who have a chance to leave the country, please do so. There is no
point in being despondent and getting into depression, remember you
are not a tree you can move. Eventually the market will prevail as the market is
more powerful than even the nuclear Bomb, just look at the once mighty
Soviet Union which was brought down by market forces.
The current mess can
be traced back to 1997 when the Zimbabwean dollar devalued massively
after Robert Mugabe’s government gave in to the demands of the War
Veterans and awarded them unbudgeted gratuity of Z$50 000.00 each .
That was a lot of money and it was equivalent to my 2 years salary as
a temporary teacher then. Some of us who were studying with foreign
institutions we saw the changes immediately as we could no longer
afford the fees. The government tried to cushion us by subsidising
price of fuel for the next 4 years. Some of my friends, workmates and
my cousin saw the signs early they left mainly for UK, Canada and New
Zealand.
Inflation started to
bite and one’s salary could not keep up with inflation. I started
to do projects. By 2007 it became worse inflation had entered
record books, according to the Cato Institute, Zimbabwe recorded the
second ever highest recorded inflation in history in 2008 where
inflation topped to 79 billion % an equivalent of 98% daily.
By 2007 many people stopped going to work as it made sense to work for
yourself. Professionals skipped the country for mainly South
Africa. Many people ended up working as waiters, domestic staff, farm
workers, truck drivers. By 2007 I was the Bulawayo Branch Manager for
Zimnat Lion what sustained me where benefits such as the use of the
company car, subsidised accommodation and the fuel I got from the
company. As a middle manager my salary was always an equivalent of R1
000.00. Due to high prices in Zimbabwe the R1 000.00 did not buy as
much as R1 000.00 in South Africa. I was being paid less than a farm worker in South Africa. I had been running my own general
dealer shops in Macheke and Mutoko where my sales averaged R20 000.00
to R30 000.00 per week. I was driving weekly to Francistown, Musina
and Johannesburg to buy stock for my shops. It no longer made sense
to continue working. My wife had already resigned beginning of 2007. I started serving my three months notice after the Easter Holidays in 2007.
Then US Ambassador
Christopher Dell was quoted having said that with such high inflation
levels Robert Mugabe risked being toppled due to the runaway
inflation. The government unleashed a price control blitz and
arrested shop owners as well as directors of retail and manufacturing companies. I lost tens of thousands of Rands. I remember some of the
stock I had bought in Gaborone were sold for less than 20% of our
cost price and my manager was also arrested and taken to court. She
was charged for trying to bring down the government by way of
increasing prices in the shop. Shortages of all goods from meat and
groceries became the order of the day and queues became the order of
the day. I had always said I would never leave Zimbabwe but this was
not the Zimbabwe I had in mind. I applied for a work permit to come
to South Africa.
At our shops people
started coming asking to pay in forex, we also started to do batter
trade for groceries with maize. During the night I would load a tonne
of maize drive through Marondera and avoided police road blocks on
our way to Mayambara in Chitungwiza where maize was now being sold in
Rands (during that time maize was a controlled product). A tonne of maize was paying about R700.00 that was a lot of
money then. I did that for weeks and we started to rebuild. On 22
August 2007, I collected my 5 years quota work permit at the South
African embassy in Harare. Ma Nyoni and I left travelled for our home
in Bulawayo that night. The next morning we travelled to Pretoria and
started to looking for a job and I started working on 1 September
2007 and started to rebuild again.
I hope this can work
as the government is saying but we have been through this before it
is the same script and more or less the same actors so we know how it
will end. Right now in boardrooms of companies in Zimbabwe they are
busy strategising how they will not only survive but prosper in this
economy. We must do so as farmers, small business owners and
individuals. You have to deal with what is on the ground. Life goes
on, please recover quickly and wake up to the reality.
If you run a
business in Zimbabwe you deserve an honorary MBA as you experience in
a year what other businesses will never experience in a life time.
I know it is easy to criticise without offering solutions. My suggestion is that Zimbabwe adopts the South African Rand for a few years. We do not need to join the Rand Monetary Union all we need to do is to informally adopt the Rand like we did with the US$ in 2009.
http://kanyokad.blogspot.com/2017/12/why-zimbabwe-needs-to-discard-bond-note.html
God bless our Zimbabwe.
I know it is easy to criticise without offering solutions. My suggestion is that Zimbabwe adopts the South African Rand for a few years. We do not need to join the Rand Monetary Union all we need to do is to informally adopt the Rand like we did with the US$ in 2009.
http://kanyokad.blogspot.com/2017/12/why-zimbabwe-needs-to-discard-bond-note.html
God bless our Zimbabwe.