Thursday, November 14, 2019

SOUTH AFRICA REMINDS ME OF ZIMBABWE IN THE MID 1990s


A few minutes  ago I listened with horror as the SAA employee representative said the strike was a success 😳 SAA is technically insolvent, no bank can loan it money yet employees are striking for an 8% salary increase 🤷🏿‍♂SAA has a government guaranteed debt of almost R13 billion and the government just gave them R5.5 billion. Elsewhere in South Africa most taxpayers who are funding SAA were lucky to get even 2% salary increase, the rest are unemployed or facing imminent retrenchment.

Do we really need SAA? My opinion is it should be shut permanently so that we move on to Eskom, PRASA, DENEL, SABC, huge civil service wage bill. Eskom has a debt of R400 billion. Public sector wages consume at least half of the budget and due to powerful unions that bill is increasing much higher than inflation. The economy will only grow by 0.5% this year. My unsolicited advice from someone who saw the unraveling in Zimbabwe from a similar situation, if you can leave the country please do. For my Zimbabwean friends in South Africa please have some assets in Zimbabwe before the fan hit the sh*t. 

The politicians in South Africa can’t grasp the seriousness of the situation, they are planning to launch National Health Insurance another financial disaster waiting to happen, they must just look to Britain how this is an unwise move. My prediction is that South African government debt will be downgraded. Eventually interest rates will increase, the Rand will devalue making the foreign debt more expensive to service. This government will most likely increase VAT rates, more fuel levy including Road Accident fund levies which are increasing much higher than inflation. By the way RAF debt is more than R26 billion.

The middle class in South Africa is in a fix, medical aid contributions are higher than pension fund contributions and now you need Gap cover 😢, you have to pay for private or semi private school education, levies at complexes due to high crime rates. The fuel price will continue increasing due to RAF and very high government tax on fuel. The public transport is non functional. Oh I almost forgot there is E-toll debt. I really regretted missing the window of opportunity to emigrate to Australia after I arrived in SA around 2007 to 2010. Some of my friends are trying Canada good luck on them, personally I wouldn’t survive in that weather. 

With the increasing number of unemployed, I expect the support for EFF to keep on growing. I like EFF leaders but their economic policies keep me awake at night. I fear fascism taking hold in South Africa due to lack of transformation and inequality. The unemployment for whites is around 6%  and they earn three times the average African, yet 52% of African youth are unemployed 😢


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